El Nino Conditions Could Indicate Drought in the Next Six Months for South Africa.

During the past month the Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures have risen indicating a transition into El Nino conditions according to the South African Weather Service (SAWS).

Based on information from the International Institute for Climate and Society and the Climate Prediction Centre in the United States as well as its own model, SAWS has said that there is a 50 percent chance of an El Nino event in the next six months at least.

The forecasts show that the 2009/10 El Nino event may not be that strong, however, the intensity of El Nino did not indicate how much the rainfall was influenced.

“The relatively weak El Nino events at the beginning of the 1990s were associated with intense drought over the region” said SAWS.

El Nino is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon.

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