Within 20 years, 86 percent of light-vehicles sold in the U.S. could be electric vehicles; but only by following this prescription.

A U.C. Berkeley study found that Americans want something like their cell phone plan for electric cars. If they don’t have to worry about their batteries, then most Americans would prefer electric cars.

If the customer is always right, then more of the automakers planning electric cars should be looking at battery leasing; with battery swaps available for long-distance travel. Customers would own the car, but pay a per-mile charge to lease the battery.

Here’s how this would make EVs cheaper than gasoline cars:

Electric cars would be cheaper than gas cars
The study proposes that if battery prices are excluded from the upfront cost of the car, (the way ongoing fueling costs now are excluded from the upfront cost of a gasoline car), and with the $7,500 electric vehicle credit, EVs would have lower upfront cost than gas cars.

The monthly cost to rent the battery and pay for charging it could be 13 cents lower per mile than gas cars per mile. Consumers will buy and own their car and subscribe to energy, including the use of the battery, which would be charged by the mile driven.

Winners and losers
To build the infrastructure for battery charging and swapping systems over the next few decades, would cost $320 billion, the study found. (Or to put that another way - there’s $320 billion to be made in building this new infrastructure, bringing $320 billion into the economy. )

Savings to the economy would amount to health-related savings of $205 billion, as less vehicle pollution reduces the incidence of asthma and other respiratory diseases. (Or put another way; health related industry profits would fall as fewer people buy inhalers and so on.) So, there are winners and losers.

Vehicle-related emissions would be reduced 62 percent (from 2005 levels), provided electric vehicles are powered by clean sources of electricity, the study found. Current oil imports of 3.7 million barrels a day from the Middle East and Venezuela would be eliminated.

Infrastructure
The vehicles, developed and sold by existing manufacturers, will be designed to allow removable, rechargeable batteries with a range of approximately 100 miles. Network operators will install private in-home and public charging stations as well as charge spots in public locations to allow customers to recharge their batteries between short trips and commutes.

To extend electric vehicles range to exceed the 100 mile battery range, battery switching stations will be installed along highways.

Service contract advantages to consumers
From the customers perspective it eliminates the up-front cost of the battery. This reduces the cost of electric cars. It lowers the risk of transitioning from gas cars to electric cars. It facilitates upgrades in a fast improving technology. It overcomes range and convenience shortcomings of previous iterations of electric cars. A switchable battery eliminates the risk of purchasing a car whose battery life is shorter than the life of the vehicle.

Advantages to industry
From the perspective of the overall market for electric cars, switchable batteries would have the advantage of allowing all parties to focus on and compete within their core competencies:

Car manufacturers can focus on designing and manufacturing cars with electric drivetrains without sourcing, producing, or insuring built-in battery packs.
Battery manufacturers can compete across the variety of battery designs and chemistries, which encourages rapid improvement in battery technology and allows advanced batteries to reach consumers more quickly.
And network operators would offer electric car drivers pay-per-mile service contracts that finance the cost of the battery, the charging infrastructure, and the charging electricity.

Source: GO Media - Written by Susan Kraemer

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