A new study, which researchers have called “the most exhaustive end-to-end analysis of climate change impacts yet performed”, predicts that global warming could be twice as bad as previous estimates had suggested.

Published this month in the Journal of Climate, the MIT-based research found a 90% probability that worldwide surface temperatures will rise at least 9 degrees by 2100.

Pulling from a variety of data sources back in 2007,  the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projected temperature increases anywhere from 2 to 11 degrees by the end of the century. Now due to this new data, it looks like the higher range of that projection may be closer to the truth.

The new study was done using 400 applications of a computer model, which included looking at complicated factors such as atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems data, as well as global economic activity. A similar 2003 study had predicted a mere– but still significant– 4 degree increase in global temperatures by 2100, but those models weren’t nearly as comprehensive, and they didn’t take into consideration economic factors.

The most impactful way to lower the projections would be to significantly reduce human-produced greenhouse gas emissions, according to the researchers.

While complex factors such as human economic activity can be difficult to quantify exactly in a computer model, it’s increasingly clear that those kinds of factors have a significant impact on global climate. As this study portrays, the more comprehensive and sophisticated our computer models get, the grimmer the news.

In other words, as our models become increasingly more accurate compared to previous models, global warming reveals itself as more acute rather than less. And it becomes much more apparent just how large of an impact human-induced factors can have on climate change.

Via USAToday.com

Source: Go Media - Written by Bryan Nelson - Image Credit: lorentey at flickr under a Ceative Commons License

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Great book on deforestation
written by Aragorn Eloff , May 26, 2009

For an excellent overview of just how bad things are, read Derrick Jensen and George Draffan's 'Strangely Like War: The Global Assault on Forests.'

http://theantidote.wordpress.com/2009/05/05/book-review-strangely-like-war-by-derrick-jensen-and-george-draffan/

You can read the first five pages here: http://www.derrickjensen.org/slw.html

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written by Anton Bouwer , May 26, 2009

How is it that everyone seems to be so aware of this, but we still continue to eradicate forests faster than ever before? Will the powers that be ever make laws against deforestation, or will they wait untill it is too late... According to some scientists, the turning point has come and gone already. I believe that it is not too late, but the media would have to be hijacked from the big bussiness lobbies, and changed into a tool of change. This apocalaptic situation can only be adressed through means of global team effort, where it is the resposibility of each and all, to plant trees, reduce consumerism, educate the children, and end Capitalism. I have planted 2350 trees on my 6 hectre smallholding without much effort. Trees want to grow, they just need a little help. Stop buying timber! Grow your own food! Use a bicycle when possible, eat less fish, dont buy plastic (pre packaged food), stop hording excess money, go solar, dont waste, recycle, educate yourself and others on a more natural life-style, Love and Respect the Earth! We arrived in this position through the Me, Mine and I of Capitalism and Greed. The potential for change is dormant in each and every one of us. Lets activate it today!

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